Elevator Industry Steady Growth Era, Transformation Breakthrough Time

At present, China is the world's largest elevator producer and consumer. China's elevator production and consumption account for more than 60% of the world's total. It is estimated that the annual elevator production in 2015 will be close to 800,000 units. Calculated at an average price of 200,000 yuan per unit, it is already a 100 billion-level city. But my country's per capita elevator The ownership still lags behind developed countries and regions. In the long run, there is still a lot of room for improvement in the ownership of elevators in my country.

1. The industry has entered a stage of steady growth

The stock base and downstream prosperity have driven the industry to enter a stage of steady growth. The growth rate of new elevator production and sales in my country has slowed down. On the one hand, the domestic elevator industry has grown at an average annual rate of 20% in the past 10 years, and elevator production has increased by nearly 6 times. It is expected that the number of elevators will exceed 4.3 million units by the end of 2015. With the expansion of the base, the industry has entered a stable growth stage from the original explosive growth stage. On the other hand, as the most important downstream part of the elevator industry, the prosperity of the real estate industry has a strong correlation with elevator demand. With the downturn in the real estate market, the growth rate of the cumulative construction area of houses has continued to decline, and the industry demand has slowed down.

New demand such as rail transit, affordable housing, and renovation of old elevators will offset some of the downward pressure. In the downstream demand of elevators, commercial and residential elevators account for more than half of the total demand, and about 30-40% of the demand is not related to the real estate industry. In contrast to the slowdown in new real estate demand, elevator sales are showing high growth in several fields such as rail transit, affordable housing, and renovation and renewal of old elevators. New demand forms a certain hedge against the decline in traditional demand. In the next 3-5 years The growth rate of production and sales of new elevators can still be maintained at 5-10%.

After installation and maintenance, the market is expected to usher in an explosion. In 2015, 4.3 million elevators across the country will generate at least 20 billion yuan in maintenance revenue, and as elevators that have been running for more than 15 years gradually enter the stage of high maintenance costs, the market size is still climbing. At the same time, the shape of the elevator maintenance market is also changing. For safety and regulatory considerations, more and more elevator owners tend to choose the original elevator factory for professional maintenance. We expect that the industry maintenance business revenue will account for more than 30% of the revenue in the next five years.

Two, the two major transformation directions of the industry

The two major attributes of the industry lay the foundation for future transformation. First of all, the overall profitability of the elevator industry is characterized by sufficient funds to stabilize the ship, which provides financial conditions for the extensional development of enterprises. In the future, the decline in the real estate boom and the slowdown in the sales growth of new elevators will provide opportunities for enterprise transformation. Therefore, elevator companies have the transformation power to find new growth points. Secondly, the intelligent manufacturing genes possessed by elevator companies also provide a breakthrough direction for business transformation. Most of the elevator production processes in China are automated, and they have an intuitive understanding of the application prospects of robots. We believe that it is the future development trend of the elevator industry to integrate robots, the Internet of Things and the manufacturing capabilities of elevator companies and enter the field of intelligent manufacturing.

risk warning. The decline in the downstream economy has led to lower-than-expected elevator demand; the growth of the maintenance market is slow; the progress of enterprises' transformation to robots and other directions is uncertain.